媒体评论经常将争夺自然资源作为引发中国南海和东海问题的主要因素。然而实际上，该地区的油气资源仅处于一般水平，预估的储量很有可能无法满足不断增长的地区能源需求，甚至由于传统的油气生产商所开采而减少。资源问题应被视为影响国内政治合法性、民族主义以及地区秩序的重要因素，而不是引发冲突的根本原因。同时，渔业及油气田成为了国家策略的政治工具，而这一策略则是为了在有争端的海域建立主权和先占地位。同样，上述产业的共同开发计划仍会因项目而异，并且仅能在战术层面上缓和冲突。谁能赢取并控制海面作业及设施才是根本，共同开发的计划难以达到全面缓解。冲突的目的。许多因素表明，资源问题将会随时间的推移而愈发重要：稳定的供应不能满足日益增加的能源需求；国有能源企业不断提升的离岸操作能力；增长的海产品的需求及其造成的远洋捕捞的压力；以及日益繁忙的海上交通。这些问题都将增大国内政治压力以及发生危机及误判的可能性。
（第一智库网初步翻译，仅供参考）
Media and policy sources frequently cite natural resources as a primary driver of tensions in the South and EastChinaSeas. In reality, the region’s hydrocarbon potential is moderate, with speculative reserves most likely dwarfed by expected regional energy demand growth and by the capacity of traditional hydrocarbon producers. Rather than functioning as fundamental drivers themselves, resource issues function primarily as focal points for more powerful underlying drivers of domestic political legitimacy, popular nationalism, and regional order. Further, fisheries and hydrocarbon blocks serve as political instruments of a wider strategy that involves establishing presence and precedent in disputed sea space. As such, while joint development potential will continue to vary from project to project and may tactically alleviate some tensions, fundamental concerns over who owns and controls above-surface features make joint development unlikely to more comprehensively ameliorate tensions. Several factors suggest that the role for resource issues will likely grow over time: sharply rising energy demand and plateauing supply; increasing capabilities of state-owned energy firms to conduct offshore operations; increasing demand for fish and concordant pressure to fish further from shore; and increases in the volume of maritime traffic and proximity. These issues could lead to both increased domestic political pressure and increased opportunities for accidents and miscalculation.
原文链接：http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/testimonies/CT300/CT385/RAND_CT385.pdf
