即使对那些支持美国融入世界经济一体化的人们而言,中国也难以成为贸易伙伴之表率。中国进口商品量居高不下、外界向来指责中国有向美国倾销低价商品之嫌、雇佣廉价劳动力、对工业进行过度补贴、操纵人民币、剽窃知识产权——所有这一切都为美国制造的商品与服务筑起了一道高墙。若想压低这些抱怨之声,美国应该与中国开展更多贸易谈判,尽管这种做法看似违反常理。
与中国建立更加密切的经济关系将为美国带来诸多裨益。首先,它能消除两国之间与日俱减的战略互信。纵观历史,贸易往来频繁、投资行为活跃的国家之间更不易产生冲突。此外,签署中美贸易协议将大大减少中国对美贸易壁垒。
在服务出口方面,美国具有较强优势,服务贸易顺差通常能够达到2000亿美元。然而,中国一些最严苛的贸易壁垒就是针对服务行业的,美国也因此丢掉了大量潜在对中出口。通过实施贸易自由化,美国在银行、保险、工程、交通运输、咨询和软件研发方面的服务出口将得到显著提高。
投资是另一个潜力未得到全面开发的重要领域。美国共计在全球投资2万亿美元,却仅有2%流入中国;同样地,作为全球投资大国,中国对美国的对外直接投资直到几年前还少得可怜。扩大中国对外直接投资,将有力促进美国经济、创造就业。
目前,中美两国及其他相关国家已在小范围内展开讨论,商定签署信息技术协议、环保产品协议以及政府采购协议。这些协议旨在为诸多IT产品和对抗气候变化的制造业商品降低关税。美国、欧盟及其他21个国家也启动了《服务贸易协议》谈判以促进服务行业贸易,且中国已表示出兴趣加入该协议。尽管如此,该协议覆盖的贸易壁垒仍然只是一小部分,美国仍需做更多努力。
一旦落实中美自由贸易双边协议,两国将享有不可限量的经济利益。实施协议的十年内,中国每年将增加3000多亿美元经济收入,美国亦将增加1300亿美元有余。中国收入增量之所以大于美国,是因其当前壁垒繁多,清除壁垒后进口商品更加低廉、生产力显著提高。美国也将持续从中受益,十年后,其年均对中国出口量将是其基线预测的两倍之多。
美国是一个开放度极高的国家,针对外国投资实施低关税、低壁垒政策。无论他国政策如何,美国都不会有任何改变。因此,加快与中国的贸易谈判步伐恰逢其时,这将为中美两国在未来开展自由贸易奠定坚实而有力的基础。
注:
本文摘编自美国智库“彼得森国际经济研究所”网站2014年11月10日发布的“How to Increase Trade between China and the United States”一文,由瞭望智库研究员马岩编译。
作者介绍:
Sean Miner, China program manager and research associate, has been with the Peterson Institute since June 2013. He works under Senior Fellow and Director Emeritus C. Fred Bergsten and Reginald Jones Senior Fellow Gary Clyde Hufbauer on international trade issues between the United States and China. He obtained his MBA from George Washington University where he focused on international business and finance and has a bachelor""s degree in government from the University of Texas. He is coauthor of Bridging the Pacific: Toward Free Trade and Investment between China and the United States (2014).
Miner spent nearly three years living in Beijing, where he studied Chinese, worked at a small consulting firm in the energy industry, and worked and studied for a semester at the China Studies Institute based at Peking University. He has also worked in the operations department of PepsiCo in Chicago and at an oil and gas financing firm in Texas. While earning his MBA, he worked as a graduate intern at the US and Foreign Commercial Service, East Asia Pacific Office, where he supported the National Export Initiative and wrote extensively on Myanmar""s economic and political situation. He also worked at the US Trade and Development Agency, East Asia Office, in support of US companies exporting to China. He speaks conversational Chinese and Spanish.