With the slowdown of the global economy, China’s economic growth is said to be that of the “L-shaped”, and the country’s market seems to be rather pessimistic about its future prospects. The actual economy is facing a challenging time, while the government and corporate debt continues to rise, and there is the increasing pressure on industrial transformation, at the same time the trade environment is deteriorating. Everything seems to be doom and gloom; if one ignores the potential of the Chinese market, it is difficult to maintain confidence in the Chinese economy in 2017.
The Chinese Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes on realizing steady growth, and that the macroeconomic policy should also be subordinated to the goal of implementing proactive fiscal policy and prudent neutral monetary policy. Anbound Think Tank believes that if the corporate world wants to adapt to the macroeconomic situation and macroeconomic policy, it must have a full understanding of the Chinese market.
In the recently completed research on the economic trend of 2017, Anbound’s chief researcher Chen Gong proposed an important concept, the industrial exchange in the Chinese market. According to Chen Gong, the Chinese market and industries are entering a transformation phase, where the manufacturing industries are moving outward and the service industries are moving inward. This would mean that with the manufacturing industries moving to other countries, China will produce more products and markets to satisfy external demand, therefore the corporate world should keep an eye on the global market. In the past, Chinese corporate only needed to know how to get things done through backdoor or through guanxi, that is through social network and influential relationships. Things are different now. Chinese products and services should be connected to the world and complied with the world standard; the business owners should have global visions and set a higher standard for their manufacturing industries. Their product design, quality and market should be internationalized.
Now foreign manufacturing industry in China is facing more and more competition. Not long ago, the German think tank Mercator Research Center’s Institute for China Studies had released a report and pointed out that “Made in China 2025”, an initiative to comprehensively upgrade Chinese industry will enhance a small group of powerful Chinese manufacturers; large number of sources of funding and strong political support will push these manufacturers to world’s top level, which will make the developed countries facing competitions in the manufacturing sector. The report said that other industrial countries should not have any illusions about the competition in China’s manufacturing sector. Then, does this mean foreign manufacturers will be hopeless in China, or China’s green field investments will become weaker? Will the capital all be flowing outward and no longer inward?
Chen Gong believes that there will not be one-sided situation, because when China’s manufacturing industries are moving outward, the foreign service industries will enter the Chinese market. It is not just foreign manufacturers are relocating, the service industries are relocating too. Unlike manufacturing industries, foreign service industries need workers and consumer markets. China is one of the few emerging markets that has sufficient populations and consumption power. Quality service industries are wanting in China, and though the industries look simple, they require good management, and good management is what China is lacking of. In its researches on China’s supply-side reform, Anbound has pointed out that China should not only improve the supply of products, but also to enhance the level of supply of services, as the high level of service is the next demand in the Chinese market.
A typical example is Disneyland theme park. Regardless if it is in Hong Kong or Shanghai, Disney can have whatever it wants in the country so long as it invests in China. China has no other option because it does not have sufficient service industries like Disney. In fact, service industries like Disney are like an arrow at the end of its fight in other countries, and are eager to look for new markets, and that it is rather popular in the Chinese market.
Chen Gong has pointed out that the Chinese market now is in fact in an industrial exchange phase, where the manufacturing industries are moving out and the service industries moving in. China does not care much that its manufacturing industries are relocating out of the country, what it fears is that some foreign service companies would be moving out of China. This would be a warning sign for the Chinese economy. China should understand this trend to develop the service industries; there is the need for China to relax the control, work on opening-up, reduce taxes and reform so that foreign service industries would enter the country.
China’s market development has entered the stage of industrial exchange; its manufacturing industries are moving outward while the foreign service industries are entering China. The Chinese government and enterprises must adapt to this situation.
在全球经济整体低迷、中国经济在L型增长轨道上继续寻底之时，国内市场对未来前景普遍比较悲观。实体经济发展艰难、政府和企业债务不断走高、产业转型压力增大、贸易环境面临恶化……如果只着眼于负面因素，而忽视中国市场的潜力，那么很难对2017年的中国经济保持信心。
中央经济工作会议强调中国经济要实现稳健增长，与此相应，宏观经济政策也要服从于稳健的目标——实行积极的财政政策和稳健中性的货币政策。安邦智库（ANBOUND）要提醒的是，企业如果要适应宏观形势和宏观政策，必须对当前中国市场的变化有充分的理解。
在近期完成的《2017年经济形势的判断》研究报告中，安邦首席研究员陈功提出了一个重要概念——中国市场的产业交换。陈功表示，现在的中国产业和市场进入到一个变化阶段，制造业是往外走的，服务业是往里走的。制造业往外走，意思是中国生产的更多产品和市场要满足外部需求，因此企业一定要盯着世界市场。这与过去很不一样了，过去会走路子、会搞关系就成。但现在不行了，企业的产品和服务必须对接世界，企业家得有世界眼光和视野，要有一个更高的标准来搞制造业，产品的设计、品质和市场都在国际上。
现在国外制造业在中国正面临越来越大的竞争。不久前，德国著名智库墨卡托中国研究中心发布报告认为，《中国制造2025》等计划将提升一小批实力强大的中国制造商，大量的资金来源和有力的政治支持会把一批中国制造商推升至世界顶级水平，这将使发达国家制造业面临竞争。该报告表示，其他工业国家对中国制造业的竞争不应有任何幻想。这种形势下，外国制造业要在中国跟本土产业竞争的难度加大，但这是不是说外国制造业在中国没希望了？来中国的绿地投资就会越来越差了？资本都是外流，不会向内流了？
陈功认为，不会出现一边倒的情况，因为当中国的制造业往外走的时候，国外的服务业是往国内市场走的。在国内外的制造业搬家的同时，还有服务业也在搬家。国外的服务业与制造业不同，他们需要人口，需要消费市场。这就显出“中国市场”的重要性来了——放眼这个世界，哪个新兴国家市场是既有人口又有购买力的？数来数去，最能满足条件的恐怕只有中国了。从中国市场的需求来看，现在正好缺的就是高品质的服务业。服务业看着简单，实际上发展起来最麻烦，涉及的管理学问“水很深”，而管理正好是中国企业的弱项。安邦智库在进行供给侧结构性改革的研究时，曾提出中国不但要改善产品供给，还要提升服务供给水平，因为高水平的服务正是中国市场下一步的需要。
一个典型的例子是迪斯尼主题公园，目前迪斯尼乐园在中国能够占到很大的便宜，从合作投资到土地供应，无论是香港还是上海，基本是要什么给什么，只要迪斯尼能来投资就可以。为什么会这样？没办法，人家有的服务业，我们还没有。因此，类似迪斯尼这样在发达国家已成强弩之末的服务业，在中国市场上颇为抢手。
陈功指出，今后的中国市场，实际是处于一种产业交换的阶段，这就像是踢足球的中场换人，有进有出，制造业出去了，服务业进来了。对于今后的中国来说，最危险的不是制造业搬家，而是一些外资服务业公司搬走。这对中国经济来说，其实是一个危险的信号！本来应该进入的服务业怎么反倒走了？要提醒国内政府注意的是，一定要看清楚这一趋势。今后要发展好服务业，国内不放松管制不行，不坚持开放不行，不减税不行，不改革也不行。否则，国外的服务业不会进来。
中国市场发展已进入到产业交换阶段，中国的制造业要向外走，国外的服务业则要向里走。中国政府和企业都要适应这种形势变化。
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